Investing Between Crises

Earlier this year, I had a little light bulb clicked on in my head after reading a piece forwarded to me by a good friend at another family office, Bienville Capital Management.  In it, the author argued that Keynesian economics is nothing but unsustainable fantasy and always ends in tears. But while it fails in the long run, it does in fact work – or gives the appearance of working – in the short run.  In other words, mass injections of government stimulus can have a seemingly positive effect for extended periods of time. But there is no question that we are now doing all the things that are likely to make the next round of crisis even worse than the last.

Last weekend, I gave a presentation to a number of multi-family offices at a Private Wealth Summit in Hollywood, FL.  The presentation (please email if you would like a copy) illustrates how we are positioned in the lull before the storm.  I kicked off the discussion with this video, which does a much better job of simplifying our current predicament than I ever could.  And for once in my life, I wasn’t the most depressing speaker in the group, as my slides were followed by David Rosenberg the following day!  Thanks Dave!