Rosie’s Baker’s Dozen

Twelve Rules for Economists’ to Live By:

  1. In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined with a market call
  2. Never be a slave to the data – they are no substitute for astute observation of the big picture
  3. The consensus rarely gets it right and almost always errs on the side of optimism – except at the bottom
  4. Fall in love with your partner, not your forecast
  5. No two cycles are ever the same
  6. Never hide behind your model
  7. Always seek out corroborating evidence
  8. Have respect for what the markets are telling you
  9. Be constantly aware of your forecast horizon – many clients live in the short run
  10. Of all the market forecasters, Mr. Bond gets it right most often
  11. Highlight the risks to your forecasts
  12. Get the US consumer right and everything else will take care of itself
  13. Expansions are more fun than recessions