We’re Not in Kansas Anymore

Truly incredible deck embedded below.  Reminded me of a few notes from a meeting on the west coast last year:

  • The Chinese equivalent of Amazon does not need to compete against a Wal-Mart because they don’t exist.
  • Mobile penetration today is only 30% in China and should be higher than internet penetration in 12-24 months.
  • This is significantly different than what has played out in developed markets where mobile ultimately trends toward internet penetration levels.
  • China eCommerce sales are surpassing the US, as brick and mortar retail is underdeveloped and prices are too high given inefficient logistics.
  • VIP Shop is the online version of TJX in China. The stock has moved from a low of $5 to $180 in the past two years, putting the market capitalization at $10 billion.
  • To put this in perspective, consider that the market capitalization of TJX is about $40 billion in the US. Imagine what Amazon would look like today if the Internet was around in 1964.