A turkey’s view of the world is highly rationale. It’s fed by a butcher for a thousand days. It wakes up every day thinking- butchers really love turkeys.
Then, just when its confidence is at all-time highs and life is as predictable as ever, the turkey’s entire belief system is destroyed on Thanksgiving.
All of us have played the part of the fat, happy, naive turkey from time to time. Historically “safe” investments appear safe simply because they’ve always provided safety in the past.
But there’s a funny thing about the past. It’s in the past. It’s passed. And just because something has acted in a particular manner in the past is no guarantee it will do so in the future. The butcher’s behavior during the first thousand days of the turkey’s life turned out to be a terrible leading indicator for his behavior on Thanksgiving Day.
In a similar fashion, many investments that were once safe are now risky. And other, historically risky investments, may be safe in the future. Risk is simply a function of the price paid in our world.
In the turkey’s world, we might suggest a definition more applicable to this unique situation.
Don’t be a turkey.