--- title: Perpetual Beta - Broyhill Asset Management description: “The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta – the degree to which one is committed to belief... image: https://www.broyhillasset.com/hubfs/beta.jpg --- [![Logo](https://www.broyhillasset.com/hubfs/Logo.svg) ](https://www.broyhillasset.com) ** ** [ Subscribe ](https://www.broyhillasset.com/subscribe-now) ![](https://www.broyhillasset.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/Broyhill/Images/Menu.svg) ![](https://www.broyhillasset.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/Broyhill/Images/closeNigation.svg) ![](https://www.broyhillasset.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/Broyhill/Images/navIcon.svg) [828.610.5360](tel:828.610.5360) [ir@broyhillasset.com](mailto:ir@broyhillasset.com) 601 S Cedar St., Suite 200, Charlotte, NC 28202 - 01[ Home ](https://www.broyhillasset.com) - 02[ About ](https://www.broyhillasset.com/about-us) - 03[ Broyhill Banter ](https://www.broyhillasset.com/broyhill-blog) - 04[ Research Studio ](https://www.broyhillasset.com/resources) - 05[ Broyhill Library ](https://www.broyhillasset.com/broyhill_library) - 06[ Contact ](https://www.broyhillasset.com/contact) # Perpetual Beta [ Christopher Pavese](https://www.broyhillasset.com/broyhill-blog/author/christopher-pavese) 05/26/2017 > The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta – the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement. It is roughly three times as powerful a predictor as its closest rival, intelligence. – Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Learning from failure requires two things. One – we must expect to fail. Two – we must recognize when we fail. In [**Superforecasting**](https://amzn.to/2r3oBXH), Tetlock and Gardner suggest that vague terms like “probably” and “likely” make it difficult to access forecasts. Time lag is another learning barrier. Our memory of our own judgment is highly selective and often wrong. Hindsight bias is the cardinal sin. “Ultimately, it’s not the crunching power that counts. It’s how you use it.” Good forecasts are the product of thorough research and an ongoing assessment of one’s assumptions. Without revision, there is no room for improvement. Thankfully, these habits can be learned. See *Portrait of a Superforecaster *below. Note that these characteristics also make for a great investment analyst. [![](https://www.broyhillasset.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/Superforecasting-Portrait-1024x766.png?width=600&height=449&name=Superforecasting-Portrait-1024x766.png)](https://www.broyhillasset.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/Superforecasting-Portrait.png) Pair with [Mindset](https://amzn.to/2qn0ja8) and [Grit](https://amzn.to/2rGrMaH), both of which were highlighted in this year’s [Broyhill Book Club](https://hubs.ly/Q020NTD20). And definitely check out [The Good Judgement Project](https://www.goodjudgment.com/). Super cool stuff here for those of us always striving to get a little better each day.   [**](http://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.broyhillasset.com%2Fbroyhill-blog%2F2017%2F05%2F26%2Fperpetual-beta) [**](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?original_referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.broyhillasset.com%2Fbroyhill-blog%2F2017%2F05%2F26%2Fperpetual-beta) [**](http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.broyhillasset.com%2Fbroyhill-blog%2F2017%2F05%2F26%2Fperpetual-beta) ### Stay Curious. Subscribe Now. ## Keep Reading #### Blind Capital According to Morningstar, the average US equity manager, has underperformed the S&P 500 Index over the past one, three and five years. Given investors natural tendency to chase what’s working, and... [Read More **](https://www.broyhillasset.com/broyhill-blog/2016/10/19/blind-capital) #### Broyhill Letter Highlights IV: Downside Protection This is the fourth piece in our Broyhill Letter Highlight series, highlighting our thoughts on downside protection over the years. You can access other posts in the series here. For those who would... [Read More **](https://www.broyhillasset.com/broyhill-blog/broyhill-letter-highlights-iv-downside-protection) #### Broyhill Letter Highlights III: Time Arbitrage This is the third piece in our Broyhill Letter Highlight series, highlighting our thoughts on time arbitrage over the years. You can access other posts in the series here. For those who would like to... [Read More **](https://www.broyhillasset.com/broyhill-blog/broyhill-letter-highlights-iii-time-arbitrage) [828.610.5360](tel:%20828.610.5360) 601 S Cedar St., Suite 200, Charlotte, NC 28202 ![Broyhill-Asset-Management-Horizontal-Logo-Light](https://www.broyhillasset.com/hubfs/Broyhill-Asset-Management-Horizontal-Logo-Light.svg) ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Christopher Pavese", "url" : "https://www.broyhillasset.com/broyhill-blog/author/christopher-pavese" }, "dateModified" : "2023-08-31T14:17:10.739Z", "datePublished" : "2017-05-26T14:16:00.000Z", "headline" : "Perpetual Beta - Broyhill Asset Management", "image" : [ "https://www.broyhillasset.com/hubfs/beta.jpg" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://www.broyhillasset.com/broyhill-blog/2017/05/26/perpetual-beta", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://www.broyhillasset.com/hubfs/Broyhill-Asset-Management-Horizontal-Logo.png" }, "name" : "Broyhill Asset Management, LLC." } } ```