Flash Crash or Topping Process?
We may not be able to predict the markets, but one thing we can always see coming: a lot of hype whenever markets...
February 7, 2018
Luck of the Irish
Promising investments can come from anywhere. There are no patents on investment ideas. The only common factor in our search for fifty cent...
March 6, 2015
One More Thought: Recession Risk
In our Annual Letter to investors we highlighted the collapse in the long-end curve as an indication of a maturing economic cycle (chart below): Our...
March 1, 2015
Chart of the Day: Fracking Downgrades
The US economy likely grew at its fastest rate since the start of the expansion in 2009, yet earnings forecasts are now falling at...
January 13, 2015
The Role of Macro
Many fundamental "bottom-up" investors often denounce macroeconomic forecasts. What may be less clear, is that this does not imply they are oblivious to...
September 26, 2014
Chart of the Day: Peak Liquidity?
Source: Bloomberg, SG Cross Asset Research...
September 23, 2014
True Profits
In a recent presentation, available here, we included a slide displaying the gap between actual and trend earnings per share. We concluded that...
September 22, 2014
Don Draper Buys Protection
Best headline of the week goes to Bloomberg's Michael Regan - Everyone’s Don Draper Now as Volatility Nostalgia Sweeps Markets. According to Regan, "Many on...
June 29, 2014
Money for Nothing
Couldn't resist. Is there a better way to start the weekend than MTV with Dire Straits? The European Central Bank cut its deposit rate...
June 6, 2014
Heads I Win, Tails You Lose
It would seem that there are risks to the macro outlook. For the time being, equities appear content to ignore disappointing macro. It also...
April 17, 2014